The Cloud Chamber

Truck Nutz For All!

For half a day, at least, it was the most inspired political stunt on teh interwebs...

Recently, some gormless hack over at the Republican Party had presumably surveyed the wreckage of the GOP and remembered reading somewhere that their Obama-nemesis had used this new-fangled Internet thing to galvanise support. So he or she decided to ape this tactic by setting up a site that would give Joe The Plumber Public an opportunity to suggest ideas for "rebuilding" the party. However, that hack forgot something very important called moderation...

The wags over at political gossip site, Wonkette, quickly latched on to it and submitted their own suggestion - "Truck Nutz for all! Give all red-blooded Americans a pair of Truck Nuts for their F150's!" (For those of you who are unaware, these are Truck Nuts.) They then encouraged their rather substantial readership to vote for it. In the space of four hours, "Truck Nutz For All!" thus became the de-facto Number One Idea for the rebuilding of the Republican Party.

Shortly thereafter, it was pulled from the site, but not before giving us yet another moment of comedy gold in a campaign that has already been a veritable treasure trove.

Your Handy Election Night Guide...

This is a highly subjective guide to the seats to watch on election night that I put together for 2SER's election night party, Rumble In The Ballot Box. I hope you find it useful. Feel free to lambast any of my claims.

(FYI: TPP means "Two Party Preferred", "The Rodent" is John Howard's official nickname, and the percentage next to each seat name is the margin needed to win it.)

New South Wales

Bennelong LIB 4.1%
The Rodent’s Lair. A poll 3 weeks ago had Maxine McKew on 47%, Howard on 46% and the Greens on 4%. On the basis of this and the fact that leaders of the large local Asian community recently came out against the Liberals, Labor will win.

Wentworth LIB 2.4%
Mal Turnbull’s seat. A blue ribbon Eastern Suburbs seat turned marginal by a redistribution that tacked on Kings Cross, Potts Point & Darlinghurst. A recent poll gave the Greens a sizable vote (17%) that could decide this race and see Labor’s hapless George Newhouse scraping in.

North Sydney LIB 10.0%
The “Dare To Dream” seat. At the start of the campaign, no one would’ve given weatherman Mike Bailey even a snowflake’s chance in hell of unseating North Sydney MP, Joe Hockey. Tireless campaigning by Mike and a big anti-WorkChoices protest vote have, however, turned the unthinkable into the conceivable. A recent McNair poll had Hockey with 44% of the vote, Mike Bailey with 41%, and the Greens with a potentially decisive 10%.

Eden-Monaro LIB 3.3%
South Coast seat stretching from Queenbeyan to the Victorian border. Won by every government since 1972. In 2004, incumbent Gary Nairn benefited from a protest vote over Latham’s forestry policy. This time round, polls have Labor’s Mike Kelly winning it 53% to 47% TPP.

Parramatta LIB 0.8%
Only listed as Liberal marginal because of a redistribution. Labor’s Julie Owens is the sitting member and should retain it easily.

Lindsay LIB 2.9%
A recent poll of mortgage holders in Sydney and Melbourne had them voting 57% to 43% in favour of Labor. As this Penrith-based seat is regarded as classic mortgage belt, Labor should win it.

Dobell LIB 4.8%
Although based around The Entrance on the Central Coast, this seat is regarded as sharing behavioural traits with the Sydney mortgage belt seats. As a result, it should fall to Labor.

Robertson LIB 6.9%
The other Central Coast seat. A tougher ask for Labor than Dobell but it was included in a recent Galaxy Poll of NSW marginals that predicted a 7.3% swing to Labor. The figures are based on a small actual sample in Robertson (200) but it does suggest that Labor is in with a chance.

Paterson LIB 6.8%
A northern Hunter seat stretching from Port Stephens to Forster-Tuncurry, and inland to Dungog. One of the targets of the government’s $1 billion promise to upgrade the Pacific Highway. Also the source of conflicting polls. A Daily Telegraph survey of marginals had it contributing to an 8% swing to Labor, while a pre-interest rate rise Newcastle Herald poll had the Liberals with a commanding lead of 46% to Labor’s 32%.

Page NAT 5.5%
A North Coast seat centered around Lismore, Grafton, Casino and Ballina (where Rudd went to cheer on Efficient in the Cup.) Formerly in the safe hands of Nationals heavyweight, Ian Causley, who is now retiring. An influx of left-leaning sea-changers, coupled with the strong Labor vote in Lismore, could see Labor pick up this seat.

Cowper NAT 6.6%
The seat directly south of Page, that takes in Kempsey, Nambucca Heads and Coffs Harbour. Demographically, it’s shifted from a rural seat to one based on the tourist and retirement industries; a development that could assist Labor. If the predicted state-wide swing in the marginals (7.3%) is on, this too may fall.

Hughes LIB 8.5%
A Sutherland Shire based seat held by Danna Vale. The Galaxy poll of marginals rates it as one of the NSW seats “at risk” but it’s a solidly Liberal electorate with a high median income. It will only fall in the event of a Rudd landslide.

Queensland

Bonner LIB 0.5% & Moreton LIB 2.8%
With swings of 0.5% and 2.8% respectively, these two suburban Brisbane seats are Labor’s easiest pickings in Queensland. It helps that they also border on the electorates of Griffith and Lilley which are held by local-boys-done-good, Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan. (Moreton has been nicknamed “Five Past Six” as 6:05pm is the time when it’s predicted that it will be called for Labor.)

Longman LIB 6.7%
A southern Sunshine Coast seat currently held by Mal Brough. It’s been included in two polls of Queensland marginals that suggest Labor will get a swing of around 5%. So, barring the sort of massive state-wide swing predicted early in the campaign, Brough should hold on in Longman and, as a result, will probably fancy his chances in the post-Howard battle for the leadership of the Liberal Party.

Blair LIB 5.7%
This seat, which takes in Ipswich and its western hinterland, is the target of one of the Government’s most extravagant pieces of pork-barrelling in this election – the $2.3 billion Goodna Bypass, designed to ease the congestion faced by Ipswich residents commuting to Brisbane. It’s got a mixed reception and may not be enough to save the electorate which was part of a Newspoll of marginals that delivered a resounding 9% swing to Labor.

Bowman LIB 8.9%
A bayside seat east of Brisbane. Despite the Lib’s sizable margin here, their candidate, Andrew Laming, has the whiff of corruption about him; having been previously investigated for printing rorts. The bookies (often as good a guide as the polls) have this seat as neck and neck between Labor and the Liberals.

Petrie LIB 7.4%
Petrie in the northern Brisbane suburbs is a seat that is known for its ability to swing wildly. This time around, though, local resentment over State Labor’s council amalgamation plans means it will probably only fall if there are large swings throughout the state to the ALP.

Herbert LIB 6.2%
This Townsville-based seat is Labor’s best chance for victory outside South-East Queensland. Home to a large Army barracks, it’s a seat where defence force enmity towards the government over the Iraq War and Brendan Nelson’s attempt to foist an unwanted fleet of Boeing jets on them could play a large part in the outcome. It was one of the marginals that polled a combined 9% swing to Labor, and a recent Townsville Bulletin poll had the ALP leading 53% to 47% TPP.

Flynn NAT 7.7%
A new seat based in Gladstone and stretching out to the coal mining districts of Central Queensland and beyond to Longreach. One of the keys here is the vote in Gladstone which swung heavily against the ALP in 2004. Labor’s chosen a popular local candidate from the town, Chris “CT” Trevor, and if he can pick up enough votes there to counteract the strong National vote in the west of the electorate, he is an outside chance to scrape in.

Victoria

Deakin LIB 5.0%
A classic mortgage belt seat in the Melbourne Eastern suburbs. In 2004, it delivered electoral pain to Labor over the Party’s support of a toll on the Scoresby freeway – a major arterial route between the East and the city centre. This time round, Labor will benefit from the interest rate backlash and heavy antipathy to WorkChoices. Their only problem is a candidate whose preselection smacked of shady back-room deals. Despite this, a Herald Sun poll at the beginning of November had Labor winning Deakin 55% to 45% TPP.

La Trobe LIB 5.8%
Jason Woods, the Liberal MP for this outer eastern Melbourne electorate, is so worried about his prospects that he recently published a campaign flyer that repudiated Party policy on nuclear power and made no mention of him being a Liberal. He may take comfort from the recent Galaxy poll of Victorian marginals that gave Labor a mere 4.6% swing, but it will still be a close contest.

Corangamite LIB 5.3%
A seat that takes in the outer suburbs of Geelong, the surfing meccas of Bells Beach and Torquay, and the hinterland north of the eastern Great Ocean Road. The demographics of this electorate are shifting from predominantly rural to increasingly suburban and sea changer based. This should favour Labor. Their only problem could be that they’ve parachuted in a candidate from Ballarat at a time when local pride is at an all-time high thanks to Geelong’s victory in the AFL premiership.

McMillan LIB 5.0%
Despite a lower margin than La Trobe or Corangmite, this seat which covers chunks of the outer Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and rural Gippsland, is seen as a less hopeful prospect for Labor. Like many rural and semi-rural electorates in Victoria, there is considerable simmering hostility to Brumby’s plan to pipe water from the country to Melbourne. There will thus need to be a big swing in suburban McMillan for Labor to win this seat.

Tasmania

Braddon LIB 1.1% & Bass LIB 2.6%
Braddon, which covers the north western corner of Tasmania, and Bass, which covers the north eastern corner, are the two seats in that state that went to the Liberals in 2004 as a result of the protest vote over Latham’s forestry policy. This time round, that is not a factor, and polls have consistently predicted both of these seats returning to Labor. The unloved Tamar Valley Pulp Mill is a big issue in these electorates but don’t expect it to be decisive, as voter anger is split between Labor (the State Labor government initially approved the Mill) and Liberal (who rubber stamped it at the Federal level).

South Australia

Kingston LIB 0.1%, Wakefield LIB 0.7% & Makin LIB 0.9%
With margins this narrow and predictions of solid swings from both state-wide and marginal polling, Labor is almost certain of picking up these three seats in the Adelaide suburbs.

Boothby LIB 5.4%
The big issue in this southern suburban Adelaide seat has been Labor’s “star” candidate Nicole Cornes. The wife of a local football legend, she has proven to be a terrible media performer who freezes under the spotlight. If Labor wins here it will be thanks to sympathetic state-wide swings and not the perceived quality of the candidate.

Sturt LIB 6.8%
A seat in Adelaide’s Eastern suburbs with a high-profile member, Chris Pine. Unlike Boothby, Labor’s “star” recruit here is a real potential star, a former Young South Australian of The Year named Mia Handshin. If a big swing is on in SA, Pine will lose this seat and Handshin will be a welcome addition to the new parliament.

Northern Territory

Solomon CLP 2.8%
The sitting member of this Darwin seat is colourful Top End lush, David Tollner. In 2001, he survived potential disendorsement for drink driving and cannabis charges and, in 2004, increased his margin from 88 votes to 2.8% of the vote. This time round he faces an increasingly uneasy suburban demographic, a sizable military vote that is no longer conservative-friendly, and a Labor candidate who’s a former footy coach and famously stood up for a woman’s “honour” against a dack-dropping AFL star and got decked for his efforts. All indications are that Tollner’s luck will finally run out and the seat will pass to Labor.

Western Australia

Cowan ALP 0.8%
If the Liberals have any chance of winning a seat, it is this electorate in Perth’s northern suburbs. Thanks to the mining boom, which has seen benefits for WA workers on AWAs, the swing against the Liberals may be smaller in Western Australia than elsewhere, and in this seat, the Liberals have a candidate who has been campaigning hard. An early West Australian poll on a small sample had this as a Liberal gain so this will be an interesting contest.

Hasluck LIB 0.1%
Based on a Westpoll poll in October that had them at a 2 Party Preferred vote of 54%, the Liberals fancy their chances of retaining this seat. The main point against their sitting member is his failure to stop the erection of an unpopular brickworks near the Perth airport. It should be close but is a likely Liberal retain.

Stirling LIB 2.0%
In the absence of a healthy Labor swing in WA, this will probably be the ALP’s only gain in Western Australia. Labor has put up an ex SAS Commander, Peter Tinley, in this seat who has been promoted heavily and looks set to overrun the Libs’ inconspicuous incumbent, Michael Keenan.

Forrest LIB 10.5%
Although Labor has no chance in this rural electorate in the southwestern corner of WA, it could deliver the surprise of the night with the Liberals losing it to an independent, Noel Brunning. Like the late Peter Andren, Brunning is the high-profile newsreader on a local TV station, GWN. If he wins Forrest, it means there will be three independents in the new parliament just as there were in the last one.

From Fair-Go To Rip-Off: An Economist Sinks The Boot Into WorkChoices

The new Australian labour code is such a massive break with Western labour traditions that it merits global attention. It is an extreme change with no economic rationale. Social scientists would love to see the data the new law generates; it would be a great ‘natural experiment.’ For the sake of Australians, however, it would be great to see the upcoming election put an end to the experiment.

So says Richard B. Freeman... And why should we listen to him? Because he is a professor of economics at Harvard who specialises in labour studies. If you can stomach his cringeworthy references to "kangaroo stew" and "platypus pie" then I thoroughly recommend reading his assessment of WorkChoices. (via Australia's best political blog, Blogocracy)